CalExit.org

What the polling shows

Support for California independence in public polls over timeEach point is one public poll. 12 polls shown, from 2014 to 2026. Support ranges 14–44 percent. Full data in the table below.0%10%20%30%40%50%201520172019202120232025Reuters/Ipsos, September 2014: 20% supportSurveyUSA / KPIX 5, November 2016: 23% supportHoover Institution Golden State Poll (Stanford/YouGov), January 2017: 27% supportReuters/Ipsos, January 2017: 32% supportSurveyUSA / KABC, January 2017: 18% supportUC Berkeley IGS Poll, March 2017: 32% supportSurveyUSA, January 2018: 16% supportSurveyUSA, March 2018: 14% supportZogby Analytics, September 2020: 30% supportYouGov (national), February 2024: 29% supportYouGov (for Independent California Institute), June 2025: 44% supportYouGov (national), February 2026: 27% support
Each dot is one public poll asking Californians whether they support or would vote for secession/independence. Question wording varies by pollster, and polls asking different questions (like "would California be better off?") are excluded here — the table below has every poll. The dashed line shows the trend.

The concept of an independent or autonomous California has been well polled, by a variety of organizations, over the past decade. Two big things stand out from all these polls:

Explicit support for secession is a substantial minority and growing. Looking at polling since 2014, support for secession has grown from 14% (SurveyUSA, March 2018) to 44% (YouGov for the Independent California Institute, June 2025).

Support for autonomy is already a majority. The June 2025 poll pegs it at 71% in favor of an autonomous state, and a majority have consistently said that Californians would be better off if CA peacefully seceded.

It’s not far fetched to think that explicit support could become the majority opinion in California in the next few years. Take a look at the polls below and see what you think.

Public polls on California independence, newest first
DatePollsterSupportOpposeSampleQuestionSource
YouGov (national)27%—— CA subsample of 26,590 U.S. adultsWould you support your state seceding from the U.S.?source
YouGov (for Independent California Institute)44%54%500 CA adultsWould you vote for a measure declaring intent to peacefully and legally withdraw from the U.S.?source
YouGov (for Independent California Institute)61%—500 CA adultsWould Californians be better off if California peacefully seceded? (not a vote question)source
YouGov (for Independent California Institute)58%42%500 CA adultsWould Californians be better or worse off as a peacefully independent country? (not a vote question)source
YouGov (national)29%—— CA subsample of 35,307 U.S. adultsWould you support your state seceding from the U.S.?source
Zogby Analytics30%50%806 CA likely votersSupport or oppose California seceding from the United Statessource
SurveyUSA14%73%1,100 CA adultsShould California secede from the United States, or remain a state?source
SurveyUSA16%71%1,100 CA adultsShould California secede from the United States, or remain a state?source
Undisclosed (sponsored by the California National Party)33%50%— CaliforniansShould California become an independent nation?source
UC Berkeley IGS Poll32%68%1,000 CA registered votersWould you support a ballot measure calling for California independence?source
SurveyUSA / KABC18%68%800 CA adultsShould California withdraw from the U.S. and become a new nation, or remain?source
Reuters/Ipsos32%—500 CA adults (subsample of national poll)Support California peacefully seceding from the United Statessource
Hoover Institution Golden State Poll (Stanford/YouGov)27%54%1,700 CA adultsSupport the "Calexit" movement to secede from the U.S.source
SurveyUSA / KPIX 523%57%800 CA votersShould California secede and become its own country?source
Reuters/Ipsos20%—— CA subsample of 8,952 U.S. adultsSupport your state peacefully withdrawing from the United Statessource

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